Monday, March 13, 2006

Measuring the Support for Preschool Initiative

The L.A. Times today headlines "Voters Widely Back Measure on Preschools."

However, if you read the actual article, the stat they use is that 66% of "Californians" back the measure.

An impressive (and worrisome) percentage, to be sure, but there is usually quite a difference between likely "voters" and "Californians." The more significant statistic is the percentage of likely voters who will actually vote for the initiative in June.

The Sacramento Bee reported last week that 55% of likely voters currently support Prop. 82, but the pollster expects that number to shrink as voters become more familiar with the measure.

Unfortunately, I suspect that there are enough California voters enticed by the idea of "free" preschool that the proposition will pass. I hope I'm wrong.


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