Tuesday, October 17, 2006

What Does It All Mean?

Lots of analysis of the current polls today.

Power Line (above) asks "Can All the Polls Be Screwy?" and links to further analysis at Big Lizards.

Jim Geraghty looks at polls and the media three weeks out from the 2004 election. What he found is encouraging. (Hat tip: Holy Coast.) I think we spend way too much time hanging on polls, which inevitably turn out to have significant "issues" come Election Day.

Geraghty also features interesting thoughts about "cell phone only" voters who aren't polled, and how Republicans may be reacting to the polls compared to a decade ago:

"I also wonder if we're seeing another preconception of races shift before our eyes. The traditional school of thought is that bad poll numbers depress a candidate's supporters, because people are less motivated to vote for a guy that they hear is going to lose. (If we hadn't heard that Bob Dole was down 20 points for most of 1996, would more voters have thought about voting for him?)

"The Republican base is marked by a visceral distrust and suspicion of the media, and now pollsters as well. The reaction of, say, a decade ago among a chunk of the GOP base would be, "Dole's down 20? Oh, what's the point?" Now I suspect that a chunk of the GOP base hears, "Oh, no way Webb is tied with Allen. Those numbers are a bunch of...!""

Hmmmm. Is it possible that the MSM and some of their phony polls, heavily weighted toward sampling Democrats, could have the effect of motivating conservative voters? That would be an interesting reflection of the new media age we're living in -- voters now are much better informed than just a decade ago.

As of the time of this post, the Washington Times link isn't yet working, but Drudge highlights Wednesday's interview with Karl Rove, in which he boldly predicts Republicans will maintain control of both the House and the Senate.

Tony Blankley concludes "Republicans Would Be Stupid Not To Vote" and tells us why.

He's right.

Wednesday Morning Update: Here is the working link for the Washington Times interview with Karl Rove.

Power Line summarizes the high points.


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