Sunday, November 05, 2006

The Wind is Shifting

The polls are swinging in the direction of Republicans as we approach Tuesday's election. Whether it's a genuine shift or the polls finally having hit The Donaldson Line and having to come back to reality to avoid, in Hugh Hewitt's words, "being Zogbied," or a combination of the above, who knows, but it's happening.

Jim Geraghty, as always, has all the latest analysis (subject link). Captain's Quarters has more.

Earlier today John McIntyre at Real Clear Politics said: "Keep an eye on the Gallup generic ballot number coming out tonight, if it shows movement similar to the ABC/WP poll there could be a big surprise brewing for many people cocooned in Washington." Well, there was movement, to the tune of 6 points. More from McIntyre here.

TV pundits are still full of doom and gloom for Republicans, especially the House, while the blogosphere is quite chipper, which brings us back to John Podhoretz's concept of Main Stream Media Time vs. Blog Time.

Podhoretz says tonight that we may possibly be seeing the end of polling as we've known it: "If Republicans hang on to the House and Senate, it won't mean that these new polls measured any real change. It will mean, instead, that all the polling in this midterm election was garbage — that, indeed, polling is in a crisis because it can no longer measure anything specific owing to the increasing sophistication and annoyance of Americans dealing with telephone solicitors." More of his thoughts at the link.

Dean Barnett, posting at Hugh Hewitt's site, predicts the Republicans will retain control of both the House and the Senate. Barnett, recalling the wildly incorrect exit polling of 2004, believes the polls have been off all along and that elections can no longer be predicted based on past methodology: "I’m officially out on the limb. But I’m comfortable here. The paradigm has shifted. People like Stu Rothenberg are like old generals re-fighting the last war; they’re re-analyzing the last election without realizing that certain key facts on the ground have changed. This will all be much more obvious on Wednesday in retrospect than it is today."

I like his thinking.

And if Rahm Emanuel is nervous, I'm happy.

Que sera, sera...

Monday Update: More enthusiasm today from Dean Barnett.

Rush Limbaugh made a point today along the lines that even if the past polls were accurate -- which he doesn't believe -- what was their point over the last months if it was all going to change going into Election Day? They were meaningless. The point, of course, was to demoralize Republicans and attempt to drive the news rather than report the news.


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