Monday, October 20, 2008

An Encouraging Poll Flashback

An October 17, 2004 headline: "Poll Suggests Kerry Has Lead in Swing States."

From the article: "...a Washington Post poll shows Kerry with a significant lead in important states that could decide the outcome of the election. The poll found Kerry held a 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 such states."

I've seen any number of similar "flashback" polls posted recently at Free Republic. They're a timely reminder that not only is polling inaccurate, but there's no doubt that the media and the Democratic Party use polling to attempt to influence the election.

Ann Coulter in her last column: "Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points."

It's also interesting to note a poll from earlier this year: in the New Hampshire primary Obama was leading Clinton 37% to 30% in the final Rasmussen poll. He lost. He had a history of underperforming relative to his polls throughout the primaries.

Matthew Continetti writes today at the Weekly Standard: "Pundits Prematurely Declare Victory for Obama."

It ain't over till it's over, and this race is definitely not over.


Blogger windycorner said...

Absolutely right. Some people obviously have a short memory....they keep perpetuating this myth in an effort to demoralize Republican voters.

7:01 AM  

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